The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable - by Nassim Nicholas Taleb

Unexpected and improbable events with devastating consequences (Black Swans) cannot be predicted. In the past, they often triggered crises, wars, or revolutions.

To perceive indications of future dangers, signals (relevant information) must be filtered from the noise (irrelevant information). It is important to distinguish between two types of systems. In systems where normal distributions can be applied, the average value of extreme values is hardly influenced. When determining the average weight of a group, this value will hardly change even when the heaviest man in Germany is included. Weight is a limited quantity based on body measurements.

However, there are also systems whose average values can be shaped by extreme values. If one compares how wealthy people are, a completely different average value will result when a billionaire is included in a group. Wealth is not a limited quantity.

Systems that are sensitive to extreme values carry a much higher potential for danger, as random events can have very significant impacts, namely Black Swans.

Original Language: English

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📥 Books that influenced this book (sorted by influence strength)

5/5

Conjectures and Refutations: The Growth of Scientific Knowledge

by Karl Popper (1963)

Karl Popper's work was foundational for The Black Swan. He realized that no number of sightings of white swans prove that all swans are white.

2/5

Debunking Economics: The Naked Emperor Dethroned?

by Steve Keen (2001)

2/5

Human Instinct: How Our Primeval Impulses Shape Our Modern Lives

by Robert Winston (2002)

2/5

If You're So Smart: The Narrative of Economic Expertise

by Deirdre N. McCloskey (1990)

2/5

Imagined Communities: Reflections on the Origin and Spread of Nationalism

by Benedict Anderson (1983)

2/5

Judgment and Decision Making: An Interdisciplinary Reader

by Terry Connolly, Hal R. Arkes & Kenneth R. Hammond (1986)

2/5

Mean Genes: From Sex to Money to Food: Taming Our Primal Instincts

by Terry Burnham & Jay Phelan (2000)

2/5

On Natural Selection

by Charles Darwin (1859)

2/5

Right Hand, Left Hand: The Origins of Asymmetry in Brains, Bodies, Atoms and Cultures

by Chris McManus (2002)

2/5

Sceptical Essays

by Bertrand Russell (1957)

2/5

The Agent: Personalities, Politics, and Publishing

by Arthur Klebanoff (2002)

2/5

The Fractal Geometry of Nature

by Benoit Mandelbrot (1977)

2/5

The Landscape of History: How Historians Map the Past

by John Lewis Gaddis (2002)

2/5

The Long Tail: Why the Future of Business Is Selling Less of More

by Chris Anderson (2006)

2/5

The Problem of Knowledge

by A.J. Ayer (1956)

2/5

The Road to Delphi: The Life and Afterlife of Oracles

by Michael Wood (2003)

2/5

The Russian Revolution

by Richard Pipes (1990)

2/5

The Social Construction of What?

by Ian Hacking (1999)

2/5

Ubiquity: Why Catastrophes Happen

by Mark Buchanan (2000)

📤 Books influenced by this book (sorted by influence strength)

5/5

On the Survival of Rats in the Slush Pile: A life-saving manual for writers

by Michael Allen (2011)

5/5

The Truth about Writing: An essential handbook for novelists, playwrights, and screenwriters

by Michael Allen (2003)


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